{"created":"2023-05-15T14:21:31.594569+00:00","id":3209,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"86378e26-d189-4af2-bf48-722c84f47d7c"},"_deposit":{"created_by":3,"id":"3209","owners":[3],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"3209"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:bunkyo.repo.nii.ac.jp:00003209","sets":["1:26:225"]},"author_link":["4154","4155"],"item_5_biblio_info_13":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"1999-01-01"},"bibliographicPageEnd":"94","bibliographicPageStart":"79","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"21","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"情報研究"},{"bibliographic_title":"Information and Communication Studies"}]}]},"item_5_date_43":{"attribute_name":"作成日","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_date_issued_datetime":"2011-02-22"}]},"item_5_description_12":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"　In this paper, the effects of a probabilistic estimation of earthquake occurrence on the awareness of disaster prevention are discussed. In May 1998, the Research Committee on Earthquake Disaster, founded by the Japanese government, estimated the probabilities with which several earthquakes would occur and announced them. According to the committee, the probability of an occurrence of the next Tokai Earthquake within 30 years was 36 percent. This probabilistic and long-term estimation is an revolutionary trial in earthquake prediction efforts, but there remain many problems. One of these problems is whether residents can evaluate such estimations properly and put them to practical use. Findings in psychology show consistently that people can't make full use of probabilistic information. In order to shed light on how residents accept such information and evaluate it, a mail survey was conducted in Shizuoka city in September 1998. The main results are as follows. On average, the citizens of Shizuoka estimated the occurrence probability of the next Tokai Earthquake at 60 percent by intuition. They felt that an earthquake was impending if they were told the disaster would occur with more probability than 30-50 percent. Consequently they took the estimation by the Research Committee as lower than their own. However, they thought that they had had better promote disaster measures as well as or more than their present level. And they didn't think that 30 years was too long to judge whether they should take disaster measures or that such probabilistic expression was too difficult to understand, making the announcement of this estimation insignificant. They also claimed that any information should be announced to residents but national and/or local governments should also tell citizens how to take the proper actions, adding to those information. Being based of these findings, some implications were discussed.\n\\n　1995年1月17日に発生した阪神・淡路大震災は、人的にも物的にも甚大な被害をもたらしたが、それ故に我々に様々な教訓を残した。そのひとつに、災害環境に対する適切な知識の普及は極めて重要だというものがある。阪神・淡路大震災の被害が激甚であったことは、直接には地震が神戸市直下で発生し、揺れが強かったことによる。しかし、家屋の構造の弱さやその後の厳しい被災生活の幾ばくかは、地震に対する事前対策の低さに起因する。そして、その背景には神戸には地震が来ないという神話も指摘しうる。\n　阪神・淡路大震災以降、様々な災害情報が公表され、マスコミ等を通じて広く伝えられるようになった。その中に政府の地震調査研究推進本部が試算、発表している長期確率評価がある。この情報は、発生が予想される地震について、一定の期間内に発生する可能性を確率表現で示すものである。それまでの「大地震が発生する可能性がある」という表現から、定量的な表現に踏み込んだ点で画期的と言いうるが、新しい試みであるだけに問題も残されている。そのひとつに「30年以内」という期間の長さや「36%」あるいは「3.5%」という確率表現を、受け手である地方公共団体や住民がどう理解するのか、という問題である。30年というのは対策を実施するにはあまりに長期に過ぎる、「3.5%」では発生の可能性が小さく安心情報と受け止められる、といった恐れもあるからである。また、心理学の知見によれば、人間は事前確率の無視など確率的な情報処理は不得手であるとされている。\n　そこで、本研究では、長期確率評価の公表を住民がどのように受け止め、どのように評価しているのか、を明らかにすることを目的としている。「今後30年以内に発生する可能性は36%」と推定された東海地震を取り上げ、もし地震が発生した場合には大きな被害を受けると予想される静岡市民を対象としたアンケート調査に基づき、長期確率評価が防災意識に及ぼす効果を分析する。","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_5_description_38":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_5_source_id_19":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"03893367"}]},"item_5_text_39":{"attribute_name":"本文言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"日本語"}]},"item_5_text_42":{"attribute_name":"ID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"BKSJ210005"}]},"item_5_text_7":{"attribute_name":"Author","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Tanaka, Atsushi"},{"subitem_text_value":"Yoshii, Hiroaki"}]},"item_5_text_8":{"attribute_name":"所属機関","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"文教大学情報学部"},{"subitem_text_value":"文教大学情報学部"}]},"item_5_text_9":{"attribute_name":"Institution","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Bunkyo University Faculty of Information and Communications"},{"subitem_text_value":"Bunkyo University Faculty of Information and Communications"}]},"item_5_version_type_35":{"attribute_name":"著者版フラグ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_version_type":"VoR"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"田中, 淳"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"吉井, 博明"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2018-03-24"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"BKSJ210005.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"7.4 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"BKSJ210005.pdf","url":"https://bunkyo.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/3209/files/BKSJ210005.pdf"},"version_id":"d4e46e23-c77e-41e5-b39b-c2f3a56f1073"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"長期確率評価情報が防災意識に及ぼす効果","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"長期確率評価情報が防災意識に及ぼす効果"},{"subitem_title":"The Effects of a Probabilistic Estimation of Earthquake Occurrence on the Awareness of Disaster Prevention"}]},"item_type_id":"5","owner":"3","path":["225"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2011-02-22"},"publish_date":"2011-02-22","publish_status":"0","recid":"3209","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["長期確率評価情報が防災意識に及ぼす効果"],"weko_creator_id":"3","weko_shared_id":-1},"updated":"2023-05-16T16:46:41.646301+00:00"}